Department of Economics, Università “Gabriele d’Annunzio”, viale Pindaro 42, I-65127 Pescara, Italy

Centre for Globalization Research, Queen Mary University of London, Mile End Road, London E1 4NS, UK

Department of Economics, Università “Gabriele d’Annunzio”, viale Pindaro 42, I-65127 Pescara, Italy. Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, via Filippo Marchetti 19, I-00199 Rome, Italy

Withdrawal of Italy from the euro area: Stochastic simulations of a structural macroeconometric model

<p>This paper assesses the impact on the Italian economy of Italy withdrawing from the euro area by means of stochastic simulations of a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/macroeconometrics" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">macroeconometric model</a>. The model considers the effect of devaluation on output, sovereign debt valuation, and the development of bilateral economic relations between Italy and its major trade partners. The simulation results are consistent with the findings of recent applied research: the Italian economy would follow the V-shaped pattern observed in most currency crises. After an initial period of stress, and provided an appropriate set of countercyclical policy measures is implemented, real GDP would recover and resume growth at a reasonable pace. In particular, while the expected positive impact of nominal exchange rate realignment on external balance would be transitory, higher nominal growth would bring about a persistent reduction in unemployment and the public debt-to-GDP ratio. These results are robust to a set of sensitivity checks, considering a number of adverse circumstances such as exchange rate overshooting, financial panic, supply-side constraints, and the application of retaliatory tariffs.</p>

Economic Modelling

2017

Economic integration

Foreign exchange

Monetary union

Sovereign debt

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This paper assesses the impact on the Italian economy of Italy withdrawing from the euro area by means of stochastic simulations of a macroeconometric model. The model cons...

Withdrawal of Italy from the euro area: Stochastic simulations of a structural macroeconometric model

Authors

Alberto Bagnai

Granville B.

Christian A. Mongeau Ospina

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