Increasing river sediment concentration and flux across the pan-Arctic

Arctic rivers transport water, sediment and carbon, playing a central role in coastal stability and biogeochemical cycling. Although freshwater discharge to the Arctic Ocean has increased in recent decades, limited observations have hindered system-wide assessment of long-term, reach-level sediment dynamics. Here we develop a pan-Arctic-specific, satellite- and machine learning-based framework to reconstruct four decades of suspended sediment concentration dynamics for 4,331 river reaches. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in suspended sediment concentration in 40% of river reaches (858 out of 2,158) draining continuous permafrost zone, primarily driven by increasing discharge, intensified thermokarst disturbances and fires. The pan-Arctic land–ocean sediment flux averages 315 ± 33 Mt yr−1, with 198 ± 35 Mt yr−1 (63%) from the six major rivers (Yenisey, Lena, Ob’, Kolyma, Yukon and Mackenzie) and 117 ± 13 Mt yr−1 (37%) from 263 previously overlooked small- and medium-sized coastal rivers. The total land–ocean sediment flux has increased by ~15%, from ~299 ± 28 Mt yr−1 in the 1980s to 344 ± 29 Mt yr−1 in the 2010s. These results provide a baseline for pan-Arctic river sediment dynamics and underscore the essential yet underappreciated contribution of small- and medium-sized coastal rivers to Arctic landscape and carbon cycle changes.